Association Between Temperature Anomalies and Suicide Mortality in Ahmedabad, India: A Time-Series Analysis

Abstract

This study looks at the effects of temperature anomalies on suicide rates in Ahmedabad, from 2010-2023. We used temperature anomalies to look at the changes caused by new climate conditions. We formulated a time series type of regression model using contemporaneous, lagged, and nonlinear temperature anomalies to determine both the real-time and lagged effects of temperature anomalies and suicides. This model had very good explanatory power. It also confirmed that the time aspect of the relationship between climate and health is critical. Based on our findings, we believe that there is no statistically significant relationship between contemporaneous temperature anomalies and suicide rates, while lagged temperature anomalies did. These findings indicate that when considering climate impact on the mental health of people, consideration should be given to the lagged impact of climate effects. The authors suggest that there should be additional public health and climate policy recommendations to consider long-term mental health implications due to extreme heat exposure.